Sunday, December 31, 2017

A Tale of two conferences - Part 1: An NFC playoff for the ages

First up, Happy New Year all! May you all have a fun-filled 2018. Good luck with your new year resolutions.

Speaking of new year resolutions, one of my resolutions for 2018 is to write more often, especially on (all) sports. With the 2017 NFL regular season coming to a close on the last day of the year, what better way to start the new year than with a post on the season so far (with tidbits from fantasy football):

(Shameless plug: for a primer / beginner's guide to the NFL, please refer to my piece on Mint on Sunday here)

This NFL season (both actual and fantasy) has been a weird one, with way too many injuries and inconsistent performances diluting what has been the rise of some new stars in the league. However, we can look with some satisfaction at the fact that only four of the twelve playoff teams also made it to the playoffs last year, with quite a few teams (Jags, Saints, Titans, Bills, Rams, Eagles) not having made the playoffs at least since 2013.

As we look at the playoff lineup, we can see two conferences, trending almost in opposite directions. On one hand, you have the AFC, where the Patriots, set as the no. 1 seed, seem very well-placed to head to Super Bowl 52 in Minneapolis, especially given that the other AFC playoff teams are not necessarily trending in the right direction. On the other hand, the Eagles, the no.1 seed in the NFC, seem very precariously placed, after the loss of Carson Wentz to an ACL injury. I may go so far as to argue that the Eagles team minus Wentz is the weakest placed amongst the NFC playoff teams, especially given the other five teams' strengths on both sides of the ball, and with momentum in the favor.

Let's start with the NFC, the more exciting conference. In my four years of watching the NFL, I haven't seen six teams in the same conference, each of which could go toe-to-toe against the other contenders (including the Eagles, who, before the Carson Wentz injury, were an absolute juggernaut).

Take the Minnesota Vikings, who, spurred by a strong defense, (unexpectedly) capable QB play from Case Keenum, one good RB in Latavius Murray, one Awesome RB in Jerick McKinnon (PSA: I am a McTruther) and the rise of the unheralded Adam Thielen, locked up the NFC North and a 1st round bye.

Or, consider the LA Rams. Widely expected to be a WIP season, Todd Gurley bounced back from his sophomore slump, and how. From 2.3 YPC and minimal receiving work in the 2016 season to almost 2100 yards from scrimmage and MVP candidacy, Todd Gurley best reflects the transformation of the LA Rams, who are an offensive juggernaut, backed by a good defense containing the likes of Aaron Donald.

Speaking of transformations, how about them Saints? From being dependent on Drew Brees to atone for the sins of a SHITTY defense, the Saints have ran the ball down the throats of opposing defenses through the two-headed Ingram - Kamara monster, and have benefitted from a vastly improved defense, rookie Marshon Lattimore being the standout defensive performer. Alvin Kamara and Lattimore are my picks for offensive and defensive rookie of the year respectively. Finally, Drew Brees can sit back and relax (not literally)!

Onward then, to Cam Newton and the Panthers. As the season progressed, Cam Newton looked back to his 2015 self, flashing that wide smile, the dab, and enjoying himself out there. And, watching football is more fun when Cam and the Panthers are having fun out there on the field. The defense has been much better than 2016, with Luke Kuechly playing all 16 games this season, and rookie Christian McCaffrey has added a spring in the Panthers' step, helping them pound their way into the playoffs.

Onto the defending NFC Champions, the Atlanta Falcons, also the only NFC playoff team from last season to make it to the playoffs again this season (albeit, just, by the skin of their teeth). While the defense has improved steadily as the season has progressed, reigning MVP Matt Ryan has disappointed this season. The strong defense and Matt Bryant field goals alone may not be sufficient against the LA Rams offensive juggernaut.

Finally, the Eagles, the no.1 seed. Before the Carson Wentz ACL injury, the Philadelphia Eagles were an absolute juggernaut on both sides of the ball. Carson Wentz was having a monster year, and would have been my pick for league MVP, had he not gone down with the injury. The defense has stagnated somewhat, conceding 29 points to the 3-13 Giants, while the offense is simply not the same without Carson Wentz, as shown in the turnover-prone performance against the already-eliminated Raiders. The other NFC playoff teams would be backing themselves to beat the Eagles in their own nest.

My predictions for the NFC bracket -

Wild card  round:
Falcons @ Rams -  Rams
Panthers @ Saints - Saints

Divisional round:
Rams @ Vikings - Rams
Saints @ Eagles - Saints

NFC Championship round:
Saints @ Rams - Too close to call; Rams slightly better on paper, but Brees and the Saints have playoff experience. I give a slight (Very Slight) edge to the Rams. 



PS: The NFC playoff race could have been a lot different, but for Aaron Rodgers injury in week 7, and maybe if the 49ers had signed Jimmy Garoppolo at the start of the season. The NFC West promises to emulate the crazy NFC South next season, with the Rams aiming to keep up their momentum, the Seahawks making a comeback from a rare playoff miss (hopefully if Russell Wilson gets more protection and help at running back),  David Johnson returning for the desert birds, and the 49ers showcasing the Jimmy G effect for the entire 16-week regular season.

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